تبیین علل ناکامی داعش در عراق بر مبنای نظریه فرصت سیاسی سیدنی تارو و مک آدام

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار و عضو هیات علمی گروه علوم سیاسی دانشگاه اردکان، اردکان، یزد، ایران.

2 دانشیار و عضو هیات علمی گروه علوم سیاسی دانشگاه یاسوج

10.30479/psiw.2021.14863.2940

چکیده

هدف: سال 1396، سال شکست­ پروژه «خلافت» داعش در جغرافیای ­سیاسی عراق بود. خلافتی که در سال 1393 با اشغال بخش­های غربی این کشور و استان‌های موصل، صلاح­الدین، دیالی و الانبار آغاز گردید. این­ شکست در حالی رخ ­داد که هنوز این گروه ­تروریستی، بخش­هایی از خاک ­سوریه را در اشغال خود داشت. هدف­ مقاله حاضر، تبیین علل ­ناکامی داعش در عراق است. سؤال ­اصلی این­ است که «عوامل­ ناکامی داعش در تشکیل ­خلافت در جغرافیای ­عراق چیست؟»
روش: برای این منظور، از روش­توصیفی تحلیلی و نظریه فرصت ­سیاسی سیدنی ­تارو و مک­آدام استفاده شده است.
یافته­ها: یافته­های­ پژوهش نشان می­دهد، اتحاد نخبگان حاکم در سرکوب­ داعش، بسته ­بودن فضای­سیاسی برای ورود آن­ها به بدنه نظام­ سیاسی، ثبات و اتحاد درونی ارکان ­حکومت، هوشیاری سیاسی شهروندان نسبت به ماهیت داعش و عدم دسترسی به متحدین سیاسی نافذ، راه هرگونه دست­یابی به فرصت سیاسی را برای داعش مسدود نمود و آن­ها را در حفظ خلافت و قلمرو تحت تصرف خود ناکام گذاشت.
نتیجه­گیری: نظریه فرصت­های­سیاسی می­تواند شکست اعتراضات سیاسی و حرکت نیروهای جهادی سلفی در جغرافیای سیاسی عراق را که منشأ بحران­های امنیتی اجتماعی بودند، با دقت ­بالایی توضیح دهد. در چارچوب این­ نظریه، موقعیت­ داعش متأثر از دو دسته عوامل ­داخلی و خارجی بود. در ارتباط با عوامل داخلی، نقش­ اختلافات بین مقامات ­سیاسی و گروه­های مذهبی و قومی قابل­ تأمّل است. در مورد عوامل­ خارجی، قطع حمایت­های مالی، نظامی و سیاسی از داعش و تشکیل ­ائتلاف منطقه­ای و بین­المللی علیه ­داعش در پایان خلافت آن نقش مؤثری داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Explaining the Causes for the Failure of ISIS in Iraq Based on the Theory of Political Opportunity of Sydney Tarrow and Mcadam

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohsen Shafiee Seifabadi 1
  • Ali Bagheri Dolatabadi 2
1 Assistant Professor of Political Sciences, Ardakan University, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Political Sciences, Yasouj University, Iran
چکیده [English]

Objective: 2017 was the year of the failure of the ISIL »caliphate« project in the political geography of Iraq; The caliphate that began in 2014 with the occupation of the western parts of the country and the provinces of Mosul, Salah al-Din, Diyala and Anbar. The defeat came as the terrorist group still occupies parts of Syrian territory. The purpose of this article is to explain the reasons for the failure of ISIS in Iraq. The main question is, »What are the causes of ISIL's failure to form a caliphate in Iraq?«
Method: For this purpose, descriptive-analytical method and political opportunity theory of Sydney Taro and McAdam have been used.
Findings: The research findings show the unity of the ruling elites in suppressing ISIL, the closure of the political space for their entry into the political system, stability and internal unity of government elements, citizens' political awareness of the nature of ISIL and lack of access to influential political allies; It blocked any access to political opportunity for ISIL and failed to maintain its caliphate and territory.
Conclusion: The theory of political opportunities can explain with great accuracy the defeat of political protests and the movement of Salafi jihadist forces in the political geography of Iraq, which were the source of socio-security crises. In the framework of this theory, the position of ISIL was affected by two categories of internal and external factors. In relation to internal factors, the role of differences between political officials and religious and ethnic groups is thought-provoking. Regarding external factors, the cessation of financial, military and political support for ISIL and the formation of a regional and international coalition against ISIL played an effective role at the end of its caliphate.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • ISIS
  • Sydney Taro
  • McAdam
  • Political Opportunity
  • Iraq
اسلامی، مسعود؛ شمس آبادی، علی، (1397)، عوامل ناکامی همه پرسی جدایی اقلیم کردستان عراق، فصلنامه ژئوپلیتیک، 14(51): 63-94.
باقری دولت آبادی، علی؛ نوروزی نژاد، جعفر (1394)، کاستی های نرم‌افزاری امنیت در عراق و قدرت یابی گروه تروریستی داعش، مطالعات سیاسی جهان اسلام، 4(4): 31-56.
رومینا، ابراهیم؛ علوی شوشتری، سیده زهرا؛ حافظ نیا، محمد رضا (1399)، بازتاب‌های سیاسی مهاجرت‌های بین‌المللی از خاورمیانه به اروپا، فصلنامه ژئوپلیتیک،16(59): 29-51.
فؤاد، إبراهیم، (2015)، داعش من النجدی إلى البغدادی، مرکز أوال للدراسات والتوثیق، بیروت: لبنان.
مرتضى، محمد محمود، (2018) ، الأسس الفلسفیة والعرفانیة للولایة التکوینیة عند الشیعة الإمامیة، بیروت:دار الولاء للطباعة والنشر والتوزیع.
مصلان نژاد، عباس، (1399)، جابه‌جایی ژئوپلیتیکی قدرت و امنیت در آسیای جنوب‌غربی، فصلنامه ژئوپلیتیک،16(59): 1-28.
نزال، حمادة، (2019)، خفایا وأسرار داعش؛ من عمامة أسامة بن لادن إلى قبعة صدام حسین، بیسان للنشر والتوزیع، بیروت: لبنان.
 
 
Al-Ali, Misbah, (2014), Hezbollah Sets up Operations Room to Cope with Iraq Fallout, The Daily Star. Jun.16, 2014.https://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2014/Jun-16/260268-hezbollah -sets -up-operations-room-to-cope-with-iraq-fallout.ashx.
Al-Qarawee, Harith Hasan, (2014), Iraq Sectarin Crisis: A Legacy of Exclusion, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, CarnegieEndowment.org.
Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, (2015), A Majority of Arabs Oppose ISIL, Support Air strikes on the Group,https://www.dohainstitute.org
Arosoaie, Aida, (2015), Doctrinal Differences between ISIS and Al Qaeda: An Account of Ideologues, Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses, Vol. 7, No.7, pp. 31-37.
Bagheri Dolatabadi, Ali; Nowruzi Nejad, Jafar (2015), Software Software Deficiencies in Iraq and the Growth of the Terrorist Group of ISIL, Political Studies of the Islamic World, Volume 4, Number 16, pp. 31-55.(In Persian)
Barrett, Richard, (2014), The Islamic State, Soufan Group. http://www.ciaonet.org/institutions/905.
Beauchamp, Zack; Fisher, Max; Matthews, Dylan, (2014), 27 Maps that Explain the Crisis in Iraq, August 8, 2014, https://www.vox.com/a/maps-explain-crisis-iraq.
Burke, Jason, (2017), Rise and Fall of Isis: Its Dream of a Aaliphate is Over, So What Now?, The Guardian, Oct.21, 2107. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/21/isis-caliphate-islamic-state-raqqa-iraq-islamist.
Cragun, Ryan, Cragun, Deborah (2008), Introduction to Sociology, USA: Seven Treasures Publications.
Dehghanpisheh, Babak, (2014), Iran's elite Guards Fighting in Iraq to Push Back Islamic State. Reuters. Aug 3. 2014. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-security-iran-insight/irans-elite-guards-fighting-in-iraq-to-push-back-islamic-state-idUSKBN0G30GE20140803.
Eddy, Melissa, (2014), Germany Bans Support for ISIS, The New York Times. Sep.12, 2014. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/13/world/europe/germany-bans-support-of-isis.html.
El-Ghobashy, Tamer; Salim, Mustafa, (2017), Top Iraqi Shiite Cleric Calls for Scaling Back Militia Influence, Backing Prime Minister, Washington Post. Dec. 15, 2017. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/top-shiite-cleric-calls-for-scaling-back-militia-influence-backing-prime-minister/2017/12/15/8834eb0e-e192-11e7-9eb6-e3c7ecfb4638_story.html
Erdbrink, Thomas, (2017), Iran Assails Saudi Arabia After Pair of Deadly Terrorist Attacks, Anchorage Daily News. Jun 7, 2017.https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2017/06/07/gunmen-storm-iranian-parliament-and-shrine-in-assaults-claimed-by-islamic-state/
Foad, Ibrahim, (2015), ISIS from Najdi to Al-Baghdadi, Awal Center for Studies and Documentation, Beirut: Lebanon. (In Arabic)
Garland, Chad, (2016), Islamic State′ says top commander Shishani killed in Iraq. Deutsche Welle. https://www.dw.com/en/islamic-state-says-top-commander-shishani-killed-in-iraq/a-19398846.
Ghosh, Bobby, (2015), ISIL and Al Qaeda: Terror's frenemies, Quartz. https://qz.com/324909/isil-and-al-qaeda-terrors-frenemies/
Hasan, Harith, (2018), The Truth about Iraq’s Democracy, The Atlantic Council, May 29, 2018, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org
Hassan, Hassan, (2015), Isis has Reached New Depths of Depravity. But there is a Brutal Logic behind it, The Guardian.https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/08/isis-islamic-state-ideology-sharia-syria-iraq-jordan-pilot.
Hubbard, Ben, (2014), Life in a Jihadist Capital: Order with a Darker Side, The New York Times. July 23, 2014. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/24/world/middleeast/islamic-state-controls-raqqa-syria.html.
Hubbard, Ben, (2015), Al Qaeda Tries a New Tactic to Keep Power: Sharing It, The New York Times.June 9, 2015.https://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/10/world/middleeast/qaeda-yemen-syria-houthis.html.
Hussain, Morteza, (2018), The Islamic State is the God that Failed in Middle East, The intercept, https://theintercept.com.
Islami, masoud; shamsabadi, ali, (2018), the Causes behind appointment of Kurdistan Regions Separation Referendum, Geopolitics Quarterly, Volume 14, Issue 51, Autumn 2018, PP 63-94. (In Persian)
Khatib, Lina, (2015), The Islamic State’s Strategy Lasting and Expanding, http://carnegieendowment.org.
Kozlowski, Francis X, (2013), The Battle of An-Najaf, Introduction U.S. Marine Corps History Division, Publisher: CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform.
Kubba, Laith (2014), Who is the U.S. targeting in Iraq air strikes? Al Jazeera.https://www.aljazeera.com/ 
Levitt, Matthew (2014), Iran Has a Secret Weapon to Fight Sunnis in Iraq, https://www.businessinsider.com.
Lynch, Thomas F, (2015), The Impact of ISIS on Global Salafism and South Asian Jihad, https://www.hudson.org .
Mansour, Renad; Jabar, Faleh A. (2017), The Popular Mobilization Forces and Iraq's Future, Carnegie Middle East Center. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 
McAdam D, Tarrow S, Tilly C. (2001), Dynamics of Contention. Cambridge University Press 
McCarthy, Niall, (2019), The Rise and Fall of ISIS, Dec 10, 2019, https://www.statista.com
McCoy, Terrence (2013), ISIL, Beheadings and the Success of Horrifying Violence, The Washington Post. June 13, 2014, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/06/13/isis-beheadings-and-the-success-of-horrifying-violence/
Meek, James Gordon (2015), Al Qaeda Leader Al-Zawahiri Declares War on ISIS 'Caliph' Al-Baghdadi, ABC News. https://abcnews.go.com/International/al-qaeda-leader-al-zawahiri-declares-war-isis/story?id=33656684.
Meyer, David S. (2004), Protest and Political Opportunities, Annual Review of Sociology, Vol. 30: 125-145.
Michael R. Gordon; Bernard E. Trainor (2012), The Endgame: The Inside Story of the Struggle for Iraq, from George W. Bush to Barack Obama. Pantheon Books.
Morteza, Muhammad Mahmoud, (2015), The Industry of Savage, Dar Al-Walaa for Industry and Publishing, Beirut: Lebanon. (In Arabic)
Mossalanejad, Abbas, (2020), Geopolitical Shift in Power and Security in Southwest Asia, Geopolitics Quarterly, Volume 16, Issue 59, Summer 2020, pp. 1-28. (In Persian)
Mustafa, Haytham, (2016), Islamic State Replaces Syrian Officials by Foreign Jihadists in Raqqa, ARA News.
Naji, Abu Bakr (2006), The Management of Savagery: The Most Critical Stage Through Which the Umma Will Pass.
Nazal, Hamada, (2019), Hidden and Secrets of ISIS, Baysan for Publishing and Distribution, Beirut: Lebanon. (In Arabic)
Payne, Ed, & Abdelaziz, Salma, (2015), 34 Islamic Nations Form Coalition to Fight Terrorism. CNN. Dec 15, 2015. https://edition.cnn.com /2015/12/14/ middleeast/islamic-coalition-isis-saudi-arabia /index.html.
Peritz, Aki (2019), Opinion: Here's Why ISIS and Al-Qaida Will Lose Their War of Attrition, NPR agency, https://www.npr.org/.
Pew Research Center (2015). Views on ISIS in 10 Countries and Palestinian Territories (Spring 2015), In nations with significant Muslim Populations, Much Disdain for ISIS, Jacob Poushter, https://www.pewresearch.org.
Pew Research Center Religion & Public Life, (2013), Figure 3: Support for Suicide Bombings against Civilians among Muslims, https://www.pewforum.org.
Roumina, Ebrahim; alavi shushtari, seyyedeh Zahra;  Hafeznia, Mohamad-Reza(2020), Political Reflections on International Migration from the Middle East to Europe,Geopolitics Quarterly,Volume 16, Issue 59, Summer 2020, pp. 29-51. (In Persian)
Salama, Vivian, (2015), Iraq Militias Say They Don't need US Help in Anbar operation. Business Insider.https://apnews.com/d06c7b18dd7546c5bf547e50219 2d94c.
 Schmidt, Michael S. and Eric Schmitt, (2016), U.S. Broadens Fight Against ISIS with Attacks in Afghanistan. The New York Times. 31 January 2016.https://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/01/us/politics/us-broadens-fight-against-isis-with-attacks-in-afghanistan.html.
Sly, Liz, (2014), Al-Qaeda Disavows any Ties with Radical Islamist ISIS Group in Syria, Iraq. The Washington Post. Feb 3, 2014.https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/al-qaeda-disavows-any-ties-with-radical-islamist-isis-group-in-syria-iraq/2014/02/03/2c9afc3a-8cef-11e3-98ab-fe5228217bd1_story.html.
Smyth, Phillip, (2015), The Shiite Jihad in Syria and Its Regional Effects, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Policy Focus 138. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-shiite-jihad-in-syria-and-its-regional-effects.
Spencer, Richard, (2013), Syria: Jabhat Al-Nusra Split after Leader's Pledge of Support for Al-Qaeda. The Telegraph. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10067318/Syria-Jabhat-al-Nusra-split-after-leaders-pledge-of-support-for-al-Qaeda.html
Statista Research Department, (2019), Perceptions on Repatriating ISIS Recruits in the United Kingdom in 2019, by Age Group, Statista Research Department, https://www.statista.com
Tarrow, Sidney (1998), Power in Movement, 2nd ed, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Teti, Isabella Frances (2016), The 'ISIS Phenomenon, PennState Presidential Leadership Academy. Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania State University.
Tharoor, Ishaan (2014), ISIS or ISIL? The Debate Over What to Call Iraq's Terror Group. The Washington Post. Jun 18, 2014.https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2014/06/18/isis-or-isil-the-debate-over-what-to-call-iraqs-terror-group/.
Thompson, Nick; Shubert, Attika (2016), The Anatomy of ISIS: How the 'Islamic State' is Run, From Oil to Beheadings, CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2014/09/18/ world/meast/isis-syria-iraq-hierarchy/index.html.
Visser, Reidar, (2010), A Responsible End? The US and the Iraqi Transition, 2005–-2010, USA: Just World Publishing.
Visser, Reidar, (2011), Policing a Messy Federation: The Role of the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court, 2005–2010, https://www.researchgate.net. 
Wordpress (2015), Map 1 Demographic Map of Iraq, https://iakal.wordpress.com.
Wright, Lawrence, (2014), ISIS's Savage Strategy in Iraq, The New Yorker. Jun 16, 2004.https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/isiss-savage-strategy-in-iraq.