دولت پنهان در مصر: از انقلاب تا دیکتاتوری

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی- قزوین

10.30479/psiw.2020.10917.2576

چکیده

هدف:پس از انقلاب مصر در 25 ژانویه سال 2011 هیچ­کس گمان نمی­کرد دیکتاتوری نظامی بتواند طی دو سال آینده مجدداً به قدرت بازگردد. ساختار سیاسی در مصر از انقلاب سال 1952 که با رهبری جنبش افسران آزاد به پیروزی رسید به سمت یک نظام الیگارشیک متمایل شده است. این وضعیت شبکه پیچیده­ای از قدرت می­باشد که بخش عمده دولت نظیر قوه مجریه، پارلمان، قوه قضائیه، ارتش و سایر ارکان نظام را در بر می­گیرد. ذکر این نکته حائز اهمیت است که نقش ارتش نسبت به سایر بخش­ها در دستکاری معادلات سیاسی بسیار برجسته­تر می­باشد. به عبارت دیگر، با آن که نظام موازنه قدرت در این کشور به عنوان بخشی از قانون اساسی به نگارش درآمده است اما هیچگاه اجرا نمی­شود.
روش­ها:از آنجایی که چارچوب نظری مقاله حاضر جامعه­شناسی تاریخی می­باشد لذا روش­شناسی آن مبتنی بر الگوی متقاطع است. به بیان ساده، نوشتار پیش رو از یک سو شیوه استقراء را در تحلیل داده­ها دنبال می­کند و از سویی دیگر با قراردادن داده­ها در بستر تاریخی نگاهی قیاسی به آنها دارد.
یافته­ها:علیرغم برگزاری انتخابات در مصر طی تقریباً 70 سال اخیر اما قدرت همواره در دستان افراد نظامی بوده است. این رویه که تا اندازه­ زیادی در جهان عرب الگویی ناشناخته به حساب نمی­آید دولت پنهان نام دارد.
نتیجه گیری:اگر چه مردم در انتخابات به نمایندگان خود رای می­دهند اما قدرت در یک گروه خاص متمرکز است. ظاهراً چرخش قدرت وجود دارد اما نتایج آن محسوس نیست. نمایش دولت پنهان در مصر نسبت به دیگر مناطق در دوره پسا ناآرامی عربی برجسته­تر می­باشد. اخوان المسلمین علیرغم مخالفت ارتش به قدرت رسید، شورای عالی قانون اساسی در برابر آن مقاومت کرد و در نهایت دولت محمد مرسی از طریق کودتای نظامی  در 3 ژوئیه 2013 سرنگون شد. این موارد تنها بخشی از نقش دولت پنهان در این کشور طی سال­های اخیر می­باشد.  

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Deep State in Egypt: From Revolution to Dictatorship

نویسنده [English]

  • Mehdi Zibaei
Assistant Professor in Political science department-Imam Khomeini International University- Qazvin
چکیده [English]

Objective: In the ensuing Egypt revolution on 25 January 2011, no one guesses the military dictatorship could turn back to power within the next two years. Political structure in Egypt since the 1952 Revolution that was won by the heading Free Officers Movement has tilted toward an oligarchic system. It is an intricate web of power that includes an integral part of the state such as the executive, parliament, the judiciary, the military and the rest. It is significant to be mentioned that the role of the military in manipulating political equations is so much striking than the others. In other words, the system of checks and balances has only been written as a part of the Constitution.
Methods: Since the theoretical framework of the current essay is Historical Sociology (HS), its methodology relies on a crossover style. On the one hand, it follows the deduction manner; on the other hand, it pursues the induction one.
Results: The power always has been in the hands of military men in spite of holding elections in Egypt within roughly the last seventy years. This situation that is not strange somehow in the Arab world is called the “deep state”.
Conclusion: Although people in Egypt vote for electing their own representatives in parliament, power are concentrated in a particular group. Ostensibly, there is a power rotation but its result is not tangible. The portrayal of the deep state in this country than other states in the region has been remarkable following Arab uprisings. Muslim Brotherhood coming to power despite military antagonism, resisting the Supreme Constitutional Court to elected president and finally ousting Morsi's Administration by a military coup d’état on 3 July 2013 are only parts of the deep state role in the country during last years.
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Egypt
  • Deep State
  • Revolution
  • military
  • Society
 

1.Abou El Fadl, Khaled M. (2013), “The Perils of a ‘People’s Coup”, New York Times, July 7, 2013, at http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/08/opinion/the-perils-ofapeoples-coup.html?ref= global (retrieved in Jun 21, 2019).

2.Arnaudo, Daniel and Alva, Aaron and Wood, Phillip and Whittington, Jan (2013), Political and Economic Implications of Authoritarian Control of the Internet, in: Butts J., Shenoi S. (eds), Critical Infrastructure Protection VII. IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, vol 417. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.

3.Bano, Masooda (2018), At the tipping point? Al-Azhar’s growing crisis of moral authority, Inter-national Journal of Middle East Studies, 50(2018), 715-734.

4.Brownlee, Jason (2013), “Violence against Copts in Egypt”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, available at:

https://carnegieendowment.org/2013/11/14/violence-against-copts-in-egypt-pub-53606 (retrieved in Jun 19, 2019).

5.Clevers, Marijn and Nimeh, Zina (2015), “Pharaohs of the deep state: Social capital in an obstinate regime”, United Nations University, available at: https://www.merit. unu.edu/publications/wppdf /2015/wp2015-056.pdf (retrieved in Jun 17, 2019).

6.Egypt Today (2017), “Billionaire Hussein Salem acquitted of money laundering charges”, Egypt Today, available at: https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/18809/ Billionaire-Hussein-Salem-acquitted-of-money-laundering-charges(retrieved in Jun 16, 2019).

7.El-Sherif, Ashraf (2014), “The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood's Failures”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, available at: https://carnegieendowment.org/files/ muslim_brotherhood _failures.pdf (retrieved in Jun 19, 2019).

8. Forster, Robert (2017), “Egypt Case Study”, Conference Paper, available at: 

9.Giddens, Anthony (1985), The Constitution of Society, Cambridge: Polity 1985, The Nation State and Violence, Cambridge: Polity.

10.  Gingeras, Ryan (2019), “How the Deep State Came to America: A History”, War On The Rocks, available at:

11.  Hawthorne, Amy and Miller, Andrew (2019), “Worse Than Mubarak: Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is bringing a new form of totalitarianism to Egypt”, Foreign Policy, available at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/02/27/worse-than-mubarak/ (retrieved in Jun 16, 2019).

12.  Hobson, John (2000), The state and International relations, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

13.  Human Right Watch (2016), “Egypt: 7,400 Civilians Tried in Military Courts: Torture, Disappearances Used to Elicit Confessions”, Human Rights Watch, available at https://www.hrw.org/news/2016 /04/13/egypt-7400-civilians-tried-military-courts (retrieved in Jun 19, 2019).

14.  Karasapan, Omer and Shah, Sajjad (2018), “Egypt’s population: Boom then bust?”, The Brookings Institution, available at:

15.  Kaya, Serdar (2009), The Rise and Decline of the Turkish "Deep State": The Ergenekon Case, Insight Turkey, 11(4), 99-113.

16.  Kirkpatrick David (2012), “Islamists Win 70% of Seats in the Egyptian Parliament”, nytimes, available at:

17.  Lord, Janet E. and Stein Michael A. (2018), Pursuing Inclusive Higher Education in Egypt and Beyond through the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, Social Inclusion, 6(4), 230-40.

18.  Mann, Michael (1988), States, War and Capitalism, Oxford: Basil Blackwell.

19.  Mann, Michael (1993), The Sources of Social Power, vol. 2, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

20.  Meyer-Resende, Michael (2014), “Egypt: In-depth analysis of the main elements of the new constitution”, The European Parliament, available at: http://www.europarl.europa.eu /RegData/etudes/note/join/2014/433846/EXPO-AFET_NT(2014)433846_EN.pdf (retrieved in Jun 19, 2019

21.  Pierce, Anne R. (2013), US “Partnership” with the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and its Effect on Civil Society and Human Rights, Society, 51(1), 68-86.

22.  Reuters (2018), “From war room to boardroom. Military firms flourish in Sisi’s Egypt”, Thomson Reuters Corporation, available at:

23.  Roll, Stephan (2015), Managing change: how Egypt’s military leadership shaped the transformation, Mediterranean Politics, 21(1), 23-43

24.  Hamid, Shadi (2017), “On Trump and the American deep state”, The Brookings Institution, available at: t: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/.../5on45_20170321_hamid-on-deep-state.pdf (retrieved in Jun 16, 2019).

25.  Söyler, Mehtap (2015), The Turkish Deep State: State Consolidation, Civil-Military Relations and Democracy, New York, Routledge.

26.  Springborg, Robert (2018), Deep States in MENA, Middle East Policy, 25(1), 136-157.

27.  Springborg, Robert (2017), The rewards of failure: persisting military rule in Egypt, British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 44(4), 478-496.

28.  Tharoor, Ishaan (2017), “What an Actual ‘Deep State’ Looks Like”, The Washington Post, available at:

29.  Transparency International (2018), “The Officers’ Republic: The Egyptian Military and the Abuse of Power”, Transparency International Defence & Security, available at: https://ti-defence.org/wp-content/.../03/The_Officers_Republic_TIDS_March18.pdf (retrieved in Jun 16, 2019).

30.  Völkel, Jan C. (2017), Sidelined by design: Egypt’s parliament in transition, The Journal of North African Studies, 22(4), 595-6.