Iraq's future political system: drivers and forward scenarios

Objective: the civil war intensified as a result of the ethno-religious identities highlighted by the Baathist regime change in Iraq in 2003; In the following these conflicts, with the advent of ISIS, regional and international interventions in the country reached their highest levels; finally, Iraq's future direction in the form of a nation-state confronted with serious challenges by holding a referendum on independence for Kurdistan. So, the main question of the study is that what can be considered scenarios for the Iraqi political system for the next decade under the influence of the political-social environment of Iraq and the various components of domestic, regional and international?
Method: in order to perform this future study, we use Peter Schwartz scenario planning method.
Results: After examining the factors and drivers affecting ethno-religious conflicts of Iraq in three domestic, regional and international dimensions, we identified two main uncertainties - as determinants and with limited certainty - about the future of the Iraqi political system which are: Increase or decrease in authority of the central government; and increase or decrease in ethnic and religious conflicts. Based on these uncertainties, three major scenarios were designed: integrated Iraq with the Kurdish region, disintegration of Iraq and federalism.
Conclusion: If the power and authority of the central government increases and ethno-religious conflicts are reduced, the Iraqi political system will lead to coherence. Reduction in the authority of the central government and as well as increasing ethnic-religious conflicts will break down Iraq. The simultaneous increase in the authority of the central government and ethno-religious conflicts will also lead to the emergence of a federalist scenario (based on ethno-religious lines).

Keywords

References

1. Hashemi, Mohammad Sadiq (2007), The project of reconciliation and the political future of Iraq, Qom: Iraq Studies Center. (in Arabic.(

2. Pour Saeed, Farzad (2011), " Strategic assessment of the future of Iraq" in the perspective of the future of Iraq; review of internal and external trends, Tehran: Strategic Studies Institute. (in Persian)

3. Schwartz, Peter. (2007), The Art of the Long View: Planning for the future in an uncertain world, Translated and Edited by: Aziz Alizadeh and Abdul Majid Keramatzadeh, Tehran: Defense Industry Research Institute, Science and Technology futurology defense Center. (in Persian.(

4. “Erdogan warns of 'ethnic war' risk over Iraqi Kurdish independence” (2017). Daily mail, 26 September, From:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-4920888/Erdogan-warns-ethnic-war-risk-Iraqi-Kurdish-independence.html, (accessed on Oct 10, 2017).

5. “Iran bans fuel trade with Kurds after 'Yes' vote in independence referendum” (2017). France24, 29 September, from: http://www.france24.com/en/20170930-iran-kurdistan-ban-fuel-trade-independence-referendum-erbil-iraq-turkey-israel, (accessed on Oct 16, 2017).

6. “Statement of the Spokesperson on the referendum held by the Kurdistan Regional Government” (2017). An official website of the European Union, September 26, From:

https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquartershomepage/32785/statement-spokesperson-referendum-held-kurdistan-regionalgovernment, (accessed on October 30, 2017).

7. al-Rawashdi, Abd al-Rahman et al. (2012), Sunni Arabs in Iraq: their History- their Reality- their Future, Riyadh: Al Bayan. (in Arabic(

8. Al-Zobadi, H., Al-Ebadi N., AtefLafi, S., (2015) Iraq Seeking for Future, translated by Ali Shams, Tehran: AndisheSazan-e-Noor Institute Publication. (in Persian)

9. Anderson, Liam and Gareth Stansfield (2014), The Future of Iraq: Dictatorship, Democracy or Division? Martin's Press

10. Andoni, Lamis (2017). “Why is Israel supporting Kurdish secession from Iraq?”, Aljazeera, October 7, From:

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/israel-supporting-kurdish-secession-iraq-171006105039473.html, (accessed on Oct 20, 2017).

11. Asadi, Ali Akbar (2014), Process of State –Nation Building in the New Iraq, Tehran: AndisheSazan-e-Noor Institute Publication. (in Persian)

12. Asadi, Ali Akbar (2016), “The future of Iraq's territorial integrity; Part II: Shiite Drivers’ Effect”, In Futures Studies Letters Monthly, Issue 38, November, pp 13-16. (in Persian)

13. Asadi, Ali Akbar (2017), “The future of Iraq's territorial integrity; Part V: Role of Kurdish Economic and Geopolitical Factors”, In Futures Studies Letters Monthly, Issue 42, February & March, pp 13-16. (in Persian)

14. Dodge, Toby (2005), Iraq's future: the aftermath of regime change, UK, Routledge for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Adelphi Papers.

15. Eslami, M., Koohi E.Rastgoo, MZ (2014), "Disintegration of Iraq and its Challenges: The Role of U.S. and Neighboring Countries; Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia", A Quarterly Journal of Political Studies of Islamic World, 3 (10), Summer, pp 11-30. (in Persian)

16. Galbraith, Peter. (2007); the End of Iraq: How American Incompetence Created a War without End, Simon& Schuster.

17. -Galbraith, Peter. (2013); the End of Iraq: How American Incompetence Created a War without End, translated by Mohammadzaman Rastgoo and Farajollah Ardizi, Tehran: The Center for Islamic Revolution Documents. (in Persian)

18. Ghasemi, Mohammad Ali (2010). "Efficient Actors in Future Iraq: Interests and Scenarios", Strategic Studies Quarterly, Article 2, Volume 13, Issue 47, Spring, pp 37-58. (in Persian)

19. Ghasemi, Mohammad Ali (2011). "Effective Actors on the Future of Iraq: Interests and Scenarios" in the perspective of the future of Iraq; review of internal and external trends, Tehran: Strategic Studies Institute. (in Persian)

20. Hafeznia, Mohammad Reza, (2006), "The Kurdish Autonomy of the Iraqi Kurds on the neighboring countries," Quarterly Journal of Geographic Research, Vol. 83, Winter, pp. 5-36. (in Persian)

21. Hinnebusch, Raymond, Ehteshami, Anoshirvan, (2003), Foreign Policy of the Middle East, Translated by Ali Golmohammadi, Tehran: Strategic Studies Research Center. (in Persian)

22. Ibish, Hussein, (2017). “The Gulf Arab Countries and the Kurdish Referendum”, worldview, October 4, From:

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/gulf-arab-countries-and-kurdish-referendum.

23. Khosravi, Alireza, Asadi, Aliakbar, (2018), The future independence of the Kurdish dilemma, actors, topics and strategies, Tehran: Strategic Futures Studies Horizon Institute. (in Persian)

24. Nakash, Yitzhak (2003), “No Manifesto; Current condition of the Iraqi Shias”, Translated by Mohammad Ali Motazedian, Tehran: Zamaneh magazine, No 13. (in Persian)

25. O'Leary, Brendan, McGarry, John, and Salih, Khaled (2006). The Future of Kurdistan in Iraq, University of Pennsylvania Press.

26. Pishgahifard, Zahra, Karimi, Hasan (2019)," A Study of the Regional Consequences of the Referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan", Human Geography Research Quarterly, 50, Issue4, Winter 2019, Pages 1029-1047. (in Persian)

27. Rastgoo, Mohammad Zaman (2007), The Impact of Ethic and religious Conflict on Iraq’s Political process, M.A. Thesis, Tehran: School of International relations. (in Persian)

28. Rastgoo, Mohammad Zaman (2018), The Impact of Ethno-religious conflicts in Iraq on The Islamic Republic of Iran's national security, PhD. Thesis, Tehran: Tarbiat Modares University. (in Persian)

29. Salim, Mustafa, DeYoung, Karen and El-Ghobashy, Tamer (2017). “Tillerson says Kurdish independence referendum is illegitimate”, Washington post, September 29, from: https://www.washingtonpost.com, (accessed on October 30, 2017).

Article View: 1,090
PDF Download: 863

Political studies of Islamic world

Iraq's future political system: drivers and forward scenarios

References

References

Volume 8, Issue 2 - Serial Number 30
September 2019
Pages 125-146

Iraq's future political system: drivers and forward scenarios

References

References

Volume 8, Issue 2 - Serial Number 30September 2019Pages 125-146

Volume 8, Issue 2 - Serial Number 30
September 2019
Pages 125-146